It’s happening again. Or at least, it sounds like it is.
Last week, President Trump said he would “absolutely” renegotiate the USMCA if elected. That headline alone kicked off a wave of speculation, panic-posting, and more than a few questions from freight folks wondering: Wait, does this mean new tariffs are coming?
Let’s clear this up: yes, the USMCA is up for review. That’s not political spin — it was built that way. A six-year sunset review is baked into the agreement, and 2026 is the first official checkpoint. The U.S., Mexico, and Canada is headed back to the table now.
But this isn’t NAFTA 2.0 all over again. We’re not going to see massive shifts in freight flows or a top-to-bottom rewrite of trade policy. What we’re likely to see is a mix of incremental rule changes, more enforcement, and political theater — all branded as a “big win” for the U.S.
Meanwhile, cross-border trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada? It’ll probably keep growing.
Here’s what you need to know.
The Agreement Was Built for This Moment
The USMCA officially replaced NAFTA in July 2020. It wasn’t a radical overhaul — it kept the duty-free trade structure intact — but it tightened up a few key areas:
Stricter rules of origin for autos and parts
Modernized digital trade protections
More enforceable labor and environmental provisions
Updated IP and pharmaceutical standards
And it added a sunset clause — a built-in mechanism requiring all three countries to review and reauthorize the agreement every six years.
So when Trump says he’s planning to renegotiate it in 2026… he’s not blowing it up. He’s just showing up for a meeting that was already on the calendar.
What Changed in 2020: Tighter, Not Transformational
The most impactful USMCA changes weren’t about what could be traded — they were about how much of it needed to be sourced from North America.
1. Auto Content Rules
The most high-profile shift was the jump in required North American content for vehicles and parts:
Under NAFTA: 62.5%
Under USMCA: 75%
Some labor wage requirements were added too. Most OEMs and Tier 1s adapted, with more documentation and sourcing audits, but few major supply chain shifts.
2. Customs & Digital Trade Modernization
Digitization of customs paperwork and streamlined small-parcel thresholds helped e-commerce and LTL more than truckload. Still, less paper and faster clearance is a net positive.
3. Labor & Environmental Provisions
These gave the U.S. more teeth in enforcement. Important for compliance teams, but not freight-altering.
What’s Likely on the Table in 2026
Auto origin rules: Could go from 75% to 80%
Stricter enforcement: More audits, compliance checks, and country-of-origin documentation
TRQ disputes: Especially dairy and poultry
More Section 232 tariffs: Covering metals, energy, semiconductors, etc.
Political brinkmanship: Suspension threats, tariff deadlines, and exit talk used as leverage
Commodities in the Crosshairs
President Trump’s strategy is tariff-first. His approach to the USMCA includes:
A proposed 25% blanket tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports
Tariff threats tied to border security, fentanyl, and perceived trade imbalances
Use of “national emergency” declarations to fast-track changes
Here are the commodities most at risk:
Agriculture & Food
Examples: Avocados, tomatoes, cheese, grains, pork
Why at risk: High cross-border reliance, tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), potential retaliation
Potential impact: 15–25% increase in consumer prices, spoilage risk, supply chain stress
Automotive
Examples: Vehicles, engines, transmissions, auto parts
Why at risk: 70% of U.S. auto parts are sourced from Mexico or Canada; highly integrated “just-in-time” supply chains
Potential impact: $2,000–$5,000 vehicle price hikes, U.S. plant slowdowns, potential 100,000+ job losses
Energy
Examples: Crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum
Why at risk: Canada is the largest supplier of oil to the U.S.; tariffs could disrupt regional energy flows
Potential impact: Fuel and heating cost increases, pressure on refineries and exporters
Metals & Minerals
Examples: Steel, aluminum, copper, rare earths
Why at risk: Previous and proposed tariffs (up to 50%); essential to construction and industrial supply chains
Potential impact: Higher costs for U.S. manufacturers, retaliation on U.S. exports, sourcing instability
Electronics & Machinery
Examples: Computers, appliances, industrial components
Why at risk: Many are assembled in Mexico; supply chains depend on low-cost, cross-border trucking
Potential impact: Delays in tech sectors, increased costs for consumer goods, potential offshoring reversal
Goods Moved by Truck: The Real Impact Zone
Cross-border trucking handles over $1.8 trillion in U.S. trade with Mexico and Canada. That’s the frontline for tariff risk.
Most at-risk truck freight:
Perishables: Avocados, berries, tomatoes from Mexico — 50-60% of U.S. fresh produce imports
Automotive: Just-in-time loads from maquiladoras; even small delays ripple upstream
Consumer Goods: Electronics, packaged food, beverages — high-volume, cost-sensitive
Industrial Inputs: Steel coils, chemicals, refined fuels
Since USMCA’s implementation, truck freight value on these commodities is up 43%. Renegotiation risks like a 25% tariff or tighter TRQs could spike freight rates, force mode shifts, and cause importers to front-load inventory.
So What Does This Mean for Freight?
Short Term:
Expect headlines, posturing, and pre-2026 stockpiling
Brokers, carriers, and compliance teams need to watch enforcement language
Medium Term:
More documentation and border friction in key categories
Delays at ports of entry, especially LTL and perishable goods
Some shifts in sourcing as companies respond to cost pressure
Long Term:
Even with noise and political heat, freight will likely grow:
Nearshoring momentum continues
U.S. buyers want diversified sourcing and shorter transit times
Mexico and Canada remain the U.S.’s most stable, integrated trade partners
The Freight Outlook: More Trucks, Not Fewer
If the USMCA gets updated in 2026, it will likely be framed as a political win for the U.S. But that doesn’t mean freight flows slow down.
We saw this in 2020: the rules got stricter, the paperwork got thicker, but trade kept growing.
This time, it may even accelerate. Companies want stability, predictability, and access to nearby suppliers. If the revised deal preserves those incentives, we could see:
Even more perishable product moved by truck from Mexico
Higher auto part volumes due to greater North American content compliance
Increased exports of U.S. ag and industrial products into Canada and Mexico
The trucks will keep rolling. And in the long run, there might be even more of them.
Want to talk about how to navigate these changes? Reach out. Or better yet: keep quoting and covering your cross-border loads. The freight isn’t going anywhere.